When Google first came out, they grew by thousands of percent quarter over quarter and year by year.  Now that they make billions each quarter and own a majority of the online advertising pie they don’t grow by thousands of percent anymore.  The same is true of Microsoft.  Before they had a 250 million dollar market capitalization they were trying to figure out how to get people away from IBM.  Once they got successful they grew by the thousands of percent too.

The media would love nothing more than to make you believe that the iPad (which doesn’t even have a keyboard) is the main reason why netbook sales are slowing down.  There are much better and more truthful answers than that for anyone who intested in more than sensationalist journalism.

- Approximately 50 million netbooks were sold around the world from 2008 through the end of 2009.  This may not sound like a lot but when you take into account that it went from almost nothing in 2007 you understand the magnitude of the growth.  As more and more people buy netbooks and rebuy previously owned netbooks the size of the addressable market changes.  Notebooks range from 13 inches all the way up to 17 inches and everything in between.  Netbook are primarily limited to 10 inch models.

- Netbooks typically only get define to ultraportable computers under 10 inches in size.  More and more models which are clearly netbooks get classified as notebooks because they are 11.6 or 12.1 inches in size.  As more and more netbooks are made in these sizes the tracking of their sales will skew downwards more and more.

- Aside from Windows 7 (which actually makes battery life WORST) there haven’t been any real killer changes to the netbook segment to make people change and upgrade.  If you own a 1000HD or 1000HE and it’s still working, very little about the new models would give you reason to raise an eyebrow.  As netbooks get more focused on play video and games better without compromising battery life there may be a bigger spike in sales.

- A growing list of alternative devices aren’t making it any easier.  Amazon took the first shot with their Kindle.  Archos has a line of 5 and 7″ tablets which have been getting a lot of attention.  ARM based smartbooks and smartpads are also becoming disruptive with people waiting to see what kind of device will be best for them.  Of these, the iPad is definitely the most well known but I don’t see college students using iPads to take notes in class.  I don’t see people small business owners using it to keep track of their business on a day to day basis.  The reviews paint the picture that the iPad is great for digesting content.  It’s a lot flashier than a netbook but I have 5 windows and 20 tabs open right now and I’d hate to imagine having to switch back and forth between them on with an iPad.

Netbooks are no longer a fad product.  For all intents and purposes they appear to be here to stay.  Sales may be less astronomical but there is still a tremendous amount of innovation and new products on their way out.  More products and more competition only makes things better for the customer who is able to pick the right device(s) for themselves based on their preferences and their budget.

[Images courtesy of DisplayBank]

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